The Ferguson Fallacy

Jake Ferguson showed some impressive skills last season as a rookie. Has he already been relegated to a backup role?
Photo taken from Ferguson’s Twitter page.

“With the 58th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft the Dallas Cowboys select… Luke Schoonmaker Tight End from the University of Michigan.” The fact that the Cowboys took a Tight End in the draft wasn’t a surprise. Taking one this early might have been. Dallas let Tight End Dalton Schultz leave via Free Agency after they franchise tagged him in 2022. The production that he had will have to be replaced. Schultz had 211 catches, 2,122 yards receiving and 17 Touchdowns. Somebody is going to have to step up into the Tight End One role. As Schoonmaker is the guy that was just drafted, with a premium selection, many assume that he will be the guy to get that responsibility. “Patience is the best remedy for every trouble.” —Plautus

The first year for Tight ends are usually spent learning and adjusting to the NFL. Even the player that just left took some time to get the respect that he has now as he is on another team. Schultz had 12 receptions for 116 yards in his rookie year. He was TE3 behind Blake Jarwin and Geoff Swaim. Tight End 1 and 2 combined for 53 receptions for 549 yards and 4 TDs. Not a ton of production. The next season, Gold Jacket Witt returns and Schultz only had 1 catch for 6 yards. This stunted his Development, but he didn’t give up. He kept fighting and took advantage of opportunities. In his third season, Schultz had 63 receptions, 615 yards and 4 TDs. In his contract year, he had 78 receptions, 808 yards and 8 TDs and he and Dak became a dangerous combo. TE1 had earned the complete trust of QB1. He was franchised and after stumbling through an injury plagued year, Schultz still caught 57 passes for 577 yards and 5 TDs.

Until his third year, Schultz had only caught 13 passes. No one thought he would go on and carve a niche role in the Cowboys offense. A testament to his hardwork and the chemistry with Dak Prescott. Last year, Jake Ferguson had 19 Receptions for 174 yards and 2 TDs as a rookie. In a limited role where he was hurt as well, Ferguson seemed to make wow plays every time he caught the ball. Not only did he catch our eye, but he also caught the attention of the best Tight End in the game, Travis Kelce who said that he is excited to see the growth of Jake Ferguson.

The potential is there. Perhaps the best number that points to his upcoming production is his Catch Percentage. Per Sports Reference, Ferguson caught 86.4% of his passes. Schultz best catch percentage was 75% in 2021 and was 64% last season. We have to give Ferguson an opportunity to prove himself. As of Luke Schoonmaker, let him ease into being an NFL tight end. While he might be ready as a blocker, keep in mind that he only had 54 catches at Michigan, 35 came from this past year. Like Ferguson and Hendershot, he too will need time to develop.

Another note that I mentioned earlier was Schultz and Prescott’s relationship and chemistry. This offseason, every report coming out of the D4KYard is that Ferguson is there as well. Putting in that work, harnessing his tools and developing that chemistry with Dak. It wouldn’t shock me if Ferguson had a bigger jump that what many are indicating. Give him a chance and I am sure that the faith you put in him will be rewarded.

“Maybe that’s why life is so precious. No rewind or fast forward… just patience and faith.” —Cristina Marrero